Solar's growth in the US is almost enough to offset rising energy use, but it's not a panacea. While solar power has seen a remarkable surge, growing by an astonishing 44% in the first quarter of 2025, it's only been able to cover a third of the demand growth. This has led to a 23% increase in coal use, which is bad news for the environment and public health. However, since then, solar growth has slowed to 36% year-over-year, and it's now enough to offset over 80% of the increased demand. This is a significant achievement, but it's not enough to completely offset the rise in energy use. The growth of solar power has also led to a drop in natural gas usage, which is a positive development. Small-scale solar, which includes residential and commercial rooftop installations, is also growing, albeit at a slower pace. If you combine small- and grid-scale solar production, total solar in the US is poised to overtake wind power, which has already passed hydropower. However, it will take two years of similar growth for grid-scale solar to pass wind on its own, and by that point, wind and solar combined will produce more power than nuclear energy. Despite the increase in coal use, wind and solar remain a larger source of electrons, although it's close enough that a change before the end of the year remains possible. If you add in nuclear, then the US has reached a grid that is 40 percent emissions-free over the first nine months of 2025. This is a positive development, but it's not enough to completely offset the rise in energy use. The massive growth in solar has also led to overproduction of power in the spring and autumn, when heating/cooling demands are lowest. This has led to a surge in battery construction to absorb the cheap power and sell it back after the Sun sets. The impact of batteries was nearly impossible to discern as recently as 2023, but data from May and June of 2025 shows batteries pulling in lots of power at mid-day, and using it in the early evening to completely offset what would otherwise be an enormous surge in the use of natural gas. Not every state has the sorts of solar resources available to California, but the economics of solar power suggest that other states are likely to experience this sort of growth in the coming years. And, while the Trump administration has been openly hostile to solar power from the moment it took office, so far there is no sign of that hostility at the grid level.
